Arrowforex Evening Forecast 31/10/2013
EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3690 - 1.3615
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 1.3679 SL 1.3711 TP 1.3629
USD/JPY
Trading range: 98.05 - 98.75
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 98.16 SL 97.84 TP 98.61
GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.6050 - 1.5970
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 1.6037 SL 1.6069 TP 1.5982
USD/CHF
Trading range: 0.9000 - 0.9075
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 0.9014 SL 0.8982 TP 0.9064
For more info Click Here
Thursday, October 31, 2013
Free Forecast and Signal 31 October 2013
Arrowforex 1st Session Forecast 31 October 2013
GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.6035 - 1.5955
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 1.6021 SL 1.6053 TP 1.5966
EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3725 - 1.3650
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 1.3712 SL 1.3744 TP 1.3662
USD/JPY
Trading range: 98.20 - 98.90
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 98.32 SL 98.00 TP 98.77
USD/CHF
Trading range: 0.8995 - 0.9070
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 0.9006 SL 0.8974 TP 0.9056
For More info Click Here
GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.6035 - 1.5955
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 1.6021 SL 1.6053 TP 1.5966
EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3725 - 1.3650
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 1.3712 SL 1.3744 TP 1.3662
USD/JPY
Trading range: 98.20 - 98.90
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 98.32 SL 98.00 TP 98.77
USD/CHF
Trading range: 0.8995 - 0.9070
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 0.9006 SL 0.8974 TP 0.9056
For More info Click Here
Wednesday, October 30, 2013
Free Forex tips and analysis
The forex market is the big daddy of all the financial markets that are functional globally. And there is not an iota of exaggeration involved in the preceding statement. Given the highly leveraged nature of trades, 24X5 market hours and high liquidity, no wonders the forex market has the highest turnover across the financial markets and asset classes. Post Bretton Woods saw a religious increase in the activities and turnover of the forex markets, reaching an average daily turnover in excess of US $4 trillion as per the reports of Bank for International Settlements.
The forex market is the darling of traders because of the highly lucrative opportunities that it provides. But then, for small trader without many resources at their disposal, it can turn out to be a nightmare with large heartbreaking losses. What one needs to understand is, getting in the arena without doing proper homework is only going to give some bruises in return. Although a proper understanding of the concepts, factors and analysis can take some time but the basic fundamentals are no rocket science. The analytical methods that traders use are technical and fundamental, similar to that of equity markets. While technical analysis is more about charts and price histories, fundamental analysis is about the macro views. Most of the traders rely on technical analysis for day trading and short term trades. But fundamental analysis is equally important. It gives you the broader picture of the market movements and trends.
Enough of foreplay there!!! Let’s come to the point.
Major factors that affect the fundamentals of the forex market are discussed below for your understanding and can be exploited for a better trading strategy if used in the right way.
The most basic thing you need to start with is an economic calendar and you need to keep it handy in order to have a quick and regular eye on the important events. An economic calendar is basically a collection of dates on which important economic data and policy updates are made public.
There are a number of major economic indicators that affect a currency. Some of these have direct and major impact while others are indirect and minor factors. The most important are:
i. Interest Rates: Interest rates have positive effect on a currency. Higher interest rates lead to strengthening of the currency as higher interest rates attract investments from abroad and push the demand for the currency up.
ii. GDP: A higher GDP data shows the strength in the economy. This in turn leads to an expected interest rate hike which in turn is good for the currency.
iii. Trade Balance: A positive trade balance or low trade deficit leads to a higher demand for the concerned currency against the other currencies thus increasing its value. USD being a global currency is not much affected by this factor as an exception.
iv. Employment: Lower unemployment indicates positive growth in the economy which is good for the currency. v. Inflation: This indicator is to be specially watched out because higher inflation rate leads to hike in interest rates to check the former. This strengthens the currency because of the increased demand in foreign markets from where investments flow in to cash the high interest rates.
vi. Manufacturing output, retail sales, housing etc.: An increase in all of such factors means growing demand which is a sign of healthy economy. This is a great sign for the currency.
Beside these demand side factors, there are some supply side factors as well.
Easy Money: Higher supply of a currency in the markets weakens it. Some of the ways of supply increase are by bond buying by central bank, quantitative easing, policy rate cuts etc. This can be best explained by the effect on dollar after Fed Reserve’s recent policy updates proposing a tapering in quantitative easing which led to concerns over USD liquidity in future. This shot the bond yields up, even though the interest rates are quite low, attracting a lot of funds from across the globe, thus pushing up the USD demand.
Also the same set of indicators of the opposite currency also needs to be watched. A weakness in the second currency in a currency pair implies a strengthening first currency. These are some of the most important fundamental indicators. There are also a lot of minor factors that affect the exchange rates in the short run, for example news related triggers.
For traders a sound knowledge of these indicators and the future expected changes in these indicators is very important as it can help in identifying an upcoming trend and making the most out of it. Concluding things here, I would suggest you to regularly track the economic calendar and news updates that affect the fundamentals of currencies in particular in order to make a successful forex trading strategy. Remember that the forex market is considered the most efficient of the financial markets and hence you need to be quick in acting on the triggers before their effects fade out.
Enough of foreplay there!!! Let’s come to the point.
Major factors that affect the fundamentals of the forex market are discussed below for your understanding and can be exploited for a better trading strategy if used in the right way.
The most basic thing you need to start with is an economic calendar and you need to keep it handy in order to have a quick and regular eye on the important events. An economic calendar is basically a collection of dates on which important economic data and policy updates are made public.
There are a number of major economic indicators that affect a currency. Some of these have direct and major impact while others are indirect and minor factors. The most important are:
i. Interest Rates: Interest rates have positive effect on a currency. Higher interest rates lead to strengthening of the currency as higher interest rates attract investments from abroad and push the demand for the currency up.
ii. GDP: A higher GDP data shows the strength in the economy. This in turn leads to an expected interest rate hike which in turn is good for the currency.
iii. Trade Balance: A positive trade balance or low trade deficit leads to a higher demand for the concerned currency against the other currencies thus increasing its value. USD being a global currency is not much affected by this factor as an exception.
iv. Employment: Lower unemployment indicates positive growth in the economy which is good for the currency. v. Inflation: This indicator is to be specially watched out because higher inflation rate leads to hike in interest rates to check the former. This strengthens the currency because of the increased demand in foreign markets from where investments flow in to cash the high interest rates.
vi. Manufacturing output, retail sales, housing etc.: An increase in all of such factors means growing demand which is a sign of healthy economy. This is a great sign for the currency.
Beside these demand side factors, there are some supply side factors as well.
Easy Money: Higher supply of a currency in the markets weakens it. Some of the ways of supply increase are by bond buying by central bank, quantitative easing, policy rate cuts etc. This can be best explained by the effect on dollar after Fed Reserve’s recent policy updates proposing a tapering in quantitative easing which led to concerns over USD liquidity in future. This shot the bond yields up, even though the interest rates are quite low, attracting a lot of funds from across the globe, thus pushing up the USD demand.
Also the same set of indicators of the opposite currency also needs to be watched. A weakness in the second currency in a currency pair implies a strengthening first currency. These are some of the most important fundamental indicators. There are also a lot of minor factors that affect the exchange rates in the short run, for example news related triggers.
For traders a sound knowledge of these indicators and the future expected changes in these indicators is very important as it can help in identifying an upcoming trend and making the most out of it. Concluding things here, I would suggest you to regularly track the economic calendar and news updates that affect the fundamentals of currencies in particular in order to make a successful forex trading strategy. Remember that the forex market is considered the most efficient of the financial markets and hence you need to be quick in acting on the triggers before their effects fade out.
For More info Click Here
Free Forex Signal
Arrow Forex Signal is an exclusive signal and forecast provider site on online service. It is providing unparalleled service from the very beginning of its commencement. It has a large professional analyst team to generate effective signals and forecast. It is providing quality service to its subscribers for their highest interest. Signal on major currency EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF with entry price and exit signals in real time (1or 2/3 times daily), daily and evening forecast. Besides, it provides special signal on special pairs on specific time that is informed through email. All alerts are sent to subscribers by e-mail. It has three packages such as Trail, Standard and Premium. And it is also cost effective.
Its unique target is to serve better signals with satisfactory level of profit to the subscribers. It tries to give better signal and profit it’s clients. Up to +60 pips day’s performance on bad day. And around +90 pips on better day when market movement is favorable to us. It offers guaranteed of profit of 1500+ pips per month.
The risk management system of arrowforex signal is unique. It always guides it’s clients to manage the risk level effectively and efficiently
So arrowforex signal is an outstanding signal and service provider for reliable signal services. And arrowforexsignal obtains a remarkable market share in signal provider rivals.
Arrow Forex Signal is serving about 200+ countries in the world with its goodwill. To visit site, Web address: www.arrowforexsignal.com and customer support department contact: support@arrowforexsignal.com
For more info Click Here
Its unique target is to serve better signals with satisfactory level of profit to the subscribers. It tries to give better signal and profit it’s clients. Up to +60 pips day’s performance on bad day. And around +90 pips on better day when market movement is favorable to us. It offers guaranteed of profit of 1500+ pips per month.
The risk management system of arrowforex signal is unique. It always guides it’s clients to manage the risk level effectively and efficiently
So arrowforex signal is an outstanding signal and service provider for reliable signal services. And arrowforexsignal obtains a remarkable market share in signal provider rivals.
Arrow Forex Signal is serving about 200+ countries in the world with its goodwill. To visit site, Web address: www.arrowforexsignal.com and customer support department contact: support@arrowforexsignal.com
For more info Click Here
Free arrowforex 2nd Session forecast 30/10/2013
Arrowforex 2nd Session forecast 30/10/2013
EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3725 - 1.3795Trend: Neutral
Buy at 1.3735 SL 1.3703 TP 1.3785
USD/JPY
Trading range: 98.45 - 97.80
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 98.31 SL 98.63 TP 97.86
GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.6025 - 1.6105
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 1.6038 SL 1.6006 TP 1.6093
USD/CHF
Trading range: 0.9015 - 0.8945
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 0.9005 SL 0.9037 TP 0.8955
For more info Click Here
Tuesday, October 29, 2013
Free forex signal and Forecast
Arrowforex 1st session forecast 30/10/2013
GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.6055 - 1.5945
Trend: Downward
Sell at 1.6043 SL 1.6075 TP 1.5955
EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3755 - 1.3650
Trend: Downward
Sell at 1.3741 SL 1.3773 TP 1.3664
USD/CHF
Trading range: 0.8990 - 0.9095
Trend: Upward
Buy at 0.9001 SL 0.8969 TP 0.9085
USD/JPY
Trading range: 98.00 - 98.95
Trend: Upward
Buy at 98.12 SL 97.80 TP 98.84
To get live forecast Click Here
GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.6055 - 1.5945
Trend: Downward
Sell at 1.6043 SL 1.6075 TP 1.5955
EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3755 - 1.3650
Trend: Downward
Sell at 1.3741 SL 1.3773 TP 1.3664
USD/CHF
Trading range: 0.8990 - 0.9095
Trend: Upward
Buy at 0.9001 SL 0.8969 TP 0.9085
USD/JPY
Trading range: 98.00 - 98.95
Trend: Upward
Buy at 98.12 SL 97.80 TP 98.84
To get live forecast Click Here
Arrowforexsignal evening forecast 2/10/2013
Arrowforexsignal evening forecast 2/10/2013
EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3785 - 1.3710
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 1.3772 SL 1.3804 TP 1.3722
USD/JPY
Trading range: 97.45 - 98.15
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 97.59 SL 97.27 TP 98.04
GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.6115 - 1.6035
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 1.6101 SL 1.6133 TP 1.6046
USD/CHF
Trading range: 0.8955 - 0.9030
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 0.8969 SL 0.8937 TP 0.9019
for more info click here
EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3785 - 1.3710
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 1.3772 SL 1.3804 TP 1.3722
USD/JPY
Trading range: 97.45 - 98.15
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 97.59 SL 97.27 TP 98.04
GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.6115 - 1.6035
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 1.6101 SL 1.6133 TP 1.6046
USD/CHF
Trading range: 0.8955 - 0.9030
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 0.8969 SL 0.8937 TP 0.9019
for more info click here
Daily Forecast of arrowforexsignal 29/10/2013
Daily Forecast of arrowforexsignal 29/10/2013
EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3790 - 1.3715
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 1.3778 SL 1.3810 TP 1.3728
USD/JPY
Trading range: 97.35 - 98.05
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 97.49 SL 97.17 TP 97.94
GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.6120 - 1.6010
Trend: Downward
Sell at 1.6109 SL 1.6141 TP 1.6021
USD/CHF
Trading range: 0.8940 - 0.9015
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 0.8954 SL 0.8922 TP 0.9004
For more info Click Here
EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3790 - 1.3715
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 1.3778 SL 1.3810 TP 1.3728
USD/JPY
Trading range: 97.35 - 98.05
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 97.49 SL 97.17 TP 97.94
GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.6120 - 1.6010
Trend: Downward
Sell at 1.6109 SL 1.6141 TP 1.6021
USD/CHF
Trading range: 0.8940 - 0.9015
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 0.8954 SL 0.8922 TP 0.9004
For more info Click Here
Monday, October 28, 2013
Arrowforex Evening Forecast 28 October 2013
Arrowforex Evening Forecast 28 October 2013
GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.6180 - 1.6255
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 1.6190 SL 1.6158 TP 1.6245
EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3790 - 1.3865
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 1.3802 SL 1.3770 TP 1.3852
USD/CHF
Trading range: 0.8955 - 0.8885
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 0.8945 SL 0.8977 TP 0.8895
USD/JPY
Trading range: 97.80 - 97.15
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 97.70 SL 98.02 TP 97.25
For More info Click Here
GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.6180 - 1.6255
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 1.6190 SL 1.6158 TP 1.6245
EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3790 - 1.3865
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 1.3802 SL 1.3770 TP 1.3852
USD/CHF
Trading range: 0.8955 - 0.8885
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 0.8945 SL 0.8977 TP 0.8895
USD/JPY
Trading range: 97.80 - 97.15
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 97.70 SL 98.02 TP 97.25
For More info Click Here
Sunday, October 27, 2013
Arrowforex Forecat 28/10/2013
EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3820 - 1.3745
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 1.3808 SL 1.3840 TP 1.3758
USD/JPY
Trading range: 97.45 - 98.15
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 97.56 SL 97.24 TP 98.01
GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.6195 - 1.6120
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 1.6185 SL 1.6217 TP 1.6130
USD/CHF
Trading range: 0.8920 - 0.8990
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 0.8930 SL 0.8898 TP 0.8980
For more info Click Here
EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3820 - 1.3745
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 1.3808 SL 1.3840 TP 1.3758
USD/JPY
Trading range: 97.45 - 98.15
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 97.56 SL 97.24 TP 98.01
GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.6195 - 1.6120
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 1.6185 SL 1.6217 TP 1.6130
USD/CHF
Trading range: 0.8920 - 0.8990
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 0.8930 SL 0.8898 TP 0.8980
For more info Click Here
Free Arrowforex Signal and Forecast
Arriowforex Top News !! Arrowforex Top News !! Arrowforex Top News
Coming Soon !!! Coming Soon!!! Coming Soon!! Coming Soon
Free Forex Signals - Forex Signals - Best Trade Signals - Trading Signals - The Best Forex Trade Signal - Forex Trading News
To get excluive live market update just vist
Site:
www.arrowforexsignal.com
Contact :
support @arrowforexsignal.com
www.arrowforexsignal.com
For more info Click Here
Coming Soon !!! Coming Soon!!! Coming Soon!! Coming Soon
Free Forex Signals - Forex Signals - Best Trade Signals - Trading Signals - The Best Forex Trade Signal - Forex Trading News
To get excluive live market update just vist
Site:
www.arrowforexsignal.com
Contact :
support @arrowforexsignal.com
www.arrowforexsignal.com
For more info Click Here
Saturday, October 26, 2013
Free Forex Signal and Forecast
Free Forex Signal and Forecast
Arrow Forex Signal is an exclusive signal and forecast provider site on online service. It is providing unparalleled service from the very beginning of its commencement. It has a large professional analyst team to generate effective signals and forecast. It is providing quality service to its subscribers for their highest interest. Signal on major currency EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF with entry price and exit signals in real time (1or 2/3 times daily), daily and evening forecast. Besides, it provides special signal on special pairs on specific time that is informed through email. All alerts are sent to subscribers by e-mail. It has three packages such as Trail, Standard and Premium. And it is also cost effective.
Its unique target is to serve better signals with satisfactory level of profit to the subscribers. It tries to give better signal and profit it’s clients. Up to +60 pips day’s performance on bad day. And around +90 pips on better day when market movement is favorable to us. It offers guaranteed of profit of 1500+ pips per month.
The risk management system of arrowforex signal is unique. It always guides it’s clients to manage the risk level effectively and efficiently
So arrowforex signal is an outstanding signal and service provider for reliable signal services. And arrowforexsignal obtains a remarkable market share in signal provider rivals.
Arrow Forex Signal is serving about 200+ countries in the world with its goodwill. To visit site, Web address: www.arrowforexsignal.com and customer support department contact: support@arrowforexsignal.com
For more info Click Here
Arrow Forex Signal is an exclusive signal and forecast provider site on online service. It is providing unparalleled service from the very beginning of its commencement. It has a large professional analyst team to generate effective signals and forecast. It is providing quality service to its subscribers for their highest interest. Signal on major currency EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF with entry price and exit signals in real time (1or 2/3 times daily), daily and evening forecast. Besides, it provides special signal on special pairs on specific time that is informed through email. All alerts are sent to subscribers by e-mail. It has three packages such as Trail, Standard and Premium. And it is also cost effective.
Its unique target is to serve better signals with satisfactory level of profit to the subscribers. It tries to give better signal and profit it’s clients. Up to +60 pips day’s performance on bad day. And around +90 pips on better day when market movement is favorable to us. It offers guaranteed of profit of 1500+ pips per month.
The risk management system of arrowforex signal is unique. It always guides it’s clients to manage the risk level effectively and efficiently
So arrowforex signal is an outstanding signal and service provider for reliable signal services. And arrowforexsignal obtains a remarkable market share in signal provider rivals.
Arrow Forex Signal is serving about 200+ countries in the world with its goodwill. To visit site, Web address: www.arrowforexsignal.com and customer support department contact: support@arrowforexsignal.com
For more info Click Here
Friday, October 25, 2013
Daily Forecast of evening 25 /10 /2013
Evening Forecast of 25/10/2013
EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3835 - 1.3760
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 1.3822 SL 1.3854 TP 1.3772
USD/JPY
Trading range: 96.95 - 97.60
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 97.05 SL 96.73 TP 97.50
GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.6230 - 1.6155
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 1.6220 SL 1.6252 TP 1.6165
USD/CHF
Trading range: 0.8905 - 0.8975
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 0.8915 SL 0.8883 TP 0.8965
For More info Click Here
EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3835 - 1.3760
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 1.3822 SL 1.3854 TP 1.3772
USD/JPY
Trading range: 96.95 - 97.60
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 97.05 SL 96.73 TP 97.50
GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.6230 - 1.6155
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 1.6220 SL 1.6252 TP 1.6165
USD/CHF
Trading range: 0.8905 - 0.8975
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 0.8915 SL 0.8883 TP 0.8965
For More info Click Here
Thursday, October 24, 2013
Forex Forecast Evening 24/102013
Evening Forecast 24/102013
EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3760 - 1.3860
Trend: Upward
Buy at 1.3770 SL 1.3738 TP 1.3847
USD/JPY
Trading range: 97.60 - 96.70
Trend: Downward
Sell at 97.48 SL 97.80 TP 96.76
GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.6160 - 1.6270
Trend: Upward
Buy at 1.6170 SL 1.6138 TP 1.6258
USD/CHF
Trading range: 0.8940 - 0.8835
Trend: Downward
Sell at 0.8926 SL 0.8958 TP 0.8842
for more info Click Here
EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3760 - 1.3860
Trend: Upward
Buy at 1.3770 SL 1.3738 TP 1.3847
USD/JPY
Trading range: 97.60 - 96.70
Trend: Downward
Sell at 97.48 SL 97.80 TP 96.76
GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.6160 - 1.6270
Trend: Upward
Buy at 1.6170 SL 1.6138 TP 1.6258
USD/CHF
Trading range: 0.8940 - 0.8835
Trend: Downward
Sell at 0.8926 SL 0.8958 TP 0.8842
for more info Click Here
Daily Forecast of 24/10/2013
Daily Forecast of 24/10/2013
GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.6170 - 1.6285
Trend: Upward
Buy at 1.6184 SL 1.6152 TP 1.6272
EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3775 - 1.3875
Trend: Upward
Buy at 1.3785 SL 1.3753 TP 1.3862
USD/CHF
Trading range: 0.8935 - 0.8830
Trend: Downward
Sell at 0.8922 SL 0.8954 TP 0.8838
USD/JPY
Trading range: 97.75 - 96.80
Trend: Downward
Sell at 97.62 SL 97.94 TP 96.90
Fore more info Click Here
GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.6170 - 1.6285
Trend: Upward
Buy at 1.6184 SL 1.6152 TP 1.6272
EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3775 - 1.3875
Trend: Upward
Buy at 1.3785 SL 1.3753 TP 1.3862
USD/CHF
Trading range: 0.8935 - 0.8830
Trend: Downward
Sell at 0.8922 SL 0.8954 TP 0.8838
USD/JPY
Trading range: 97.75 - 96.80
Trend: Downward
Sell at 97.62 SL 97.94 TP 96.90
Fore more info Click Here
Wednesday, October 23, 2013
Free Forex Signal and Indicators
Forex Indicator //////Forex Indicator/////Forex indicator
Parabolic SAR Indicator
Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse) is an indicator developed by J. Willes Wilder to discover and exploit profitable trends in all kinds of markets. It is a popular tool among technical traders, and a straightforward and as a simple mechanism for analyzing the markets, it offers some unique advantages over other tools.
Below we have a chart of the EURUSD pair depicting the Parabolic SAR in action. We observe that the indicator was able to capture many small reversals with remarkable accuracy. And in those cases where it failed, we see that the thrust of the market action was strong enough to place it into a correct configuration, thereby minimizing the potential losses of a faulty trade.
Calculation of the Parabolic SAR
Parabolic SAR is calculated by a recursive formula which ties the prices of one period to another through simple arithmetics.
SAR of Today = SAR of Yesterday + a (EP- SAR of Yesterday)
Or
SAR of Tomorrow = SAR of Today + a(EP-SAR of Today)
EP is the maximum recorded during the time period in consideration. If during each period of analysis a new record is broken, the EP will be updated accordingly, and the SAR value will change.
"a" represents the acceleration factor. It is set at 0.02 in the beginning, and reset each time a new EP is achieved. This is to ensure that the indicator's value will come closer to the EP value every time a new record is broken, but the maximum value for the EP is usually set at 0.2 in order to prevent it from becoming too large and distorting the analytical picture. Due to the higher volatility of the forex market, traders prefer to give an initial value of 0.01 to the acceleration factor on the basis that frequent fluctuations, leaps and bounces in the price action do not justify attaching a lot of significance to arbitrary price highs.
Once the SAR value is calculated one of two courses will be taken in order to derive the signal from the indicator. If tomorrow's SAR remains within today's or yesterday's price range, the indicator is set at the lowest price during that time period. For example, if the SAR is slightly above yesterday's opening lowest price, or close to, but below, yesterday's high, the indicator will be set at today's lowest price.
If on the other hand, tomorrow's SAR value is within tomorrow's price range, the indicator will switch sides. If it is below the price action, it will move to the upside, and if it was on the upside it will come below, signifying a trend switch.
Trading with Parabolic SAR
Parabolic SAR is generally regarded as a trend indicator, since other types of markets tend to generate false signals leading to whipsaws and fake breakouts. The best way of trading the Parabolic SAR is to first gauge the direction of the market by using simple tools like trend lines, moving averages, or tools like the average true range, before using Parabolic SAR to trade the shorter-term fluctuations that can be exploited within a longer term framework.
When it is drawn on a chart, the Parabolic SAR will indicate a bullish market if it remains below the price, or supports it, and when it is above the same it is regarded to be suppressing the prices, indicating bearish conditions. Not only is it possible to regard this phenomenon as a signal for the opening of a position, but it also makes sense to use the Parabolic SAR as a stop or take profit level in each trade. For instance, when the price action is bearish, and we have a sell order, one can choose to exit the position when the price action approaches the SAR level by a predetermined number of pips. When the market action is bullish on the other hand, we can use the Parabolic SAR as a support level, and when the price gets too close to it, we can liquidate the trade. It is also possible to use a time-stop while trading with this indicator. In this case, there is no necessity of a market reversal. Instead we determine a timeframe during which the trade will be kept active, but when that period is out, we'll liquidate it even if the Parabolic SAR indicator is indicating positive conditions. This course of action is justified on the basis that in a strongly trending market where this indicator is most useful, lack of progress can be a sign of approaching reversal.
Conclusion
This indicator is most useful in a trending market. It is best to use it in combination with other indicators that establish the general direction of the trend at a higher level, while trading short-term volatility with the SAR. The advantages of this technical tool are its simplicity, clarity of signals, ease of interpretation, and tendency to generate concrete points of action during a trending market. These same strengths are also the weaknesses of the indicator. It is sometimes the case that the solid signals of the SAR indicator lack any practical basis. To avoid such conditions, we suggest that you use the SAR indicator with oscillators that signal emerging divergence/convergence scenarios, so that the common problem of whipsaws are reduced in frequency. Ultimately, of course, our best guide should always be money management and prudence in trading, beyond any single technical indicator
Elliott Wave Theory
Elliott Wave Theory is a popular method of analysis that applies a technical approach with a fundamental analysis interpretation. Elliott Wave Theorists also concentrate on the price action strictly, and agree to the notion that the price is the beginning and end of all analysis, but they recognize that there exists an important relationship between liquidity, credit, and economic robustness which underlies the existing price patterns in the market.
The Wave Theory was first proposed by Ralph Nelson Elliott, an accountant, in the 1930s. Elliott's approach was condensed into its definitive form in his 1938 book "Nature's Laws - The Secret of the Universe" in 1946. Since then, the theory has been regarded both as pseudo-science, and as an effective method for dealing with the uncertainties of the market. Academics tend to disregard it in general, while some famous trading personalities, such as Robert Prechter, and Paul Tudor Jones claim to have attained success by using it.
Calculation
The Elliott Wave Theory is based on the cyclical nature of market events. Most traders are familiar with the fact that market events, and economical conditions tend to recur in time with a varying frequency. A growth phase may be exceptionally long, or a recession (and a bear market may surprised to be exceptionally harsh and deep, but the nature of trading and economic activity ensures that sooner or later the existing conditions will revert to the opposite, and the market
Trading with the Elliott Wave
A wave theorist will divide the price pattern into several sub-patterns and consider trade opportunities on the basis of trends that exist at lower levels. Although Elliott Wave Theory is often discussed in the context of decades or years, the fractal nature of the price action enables the application of the theory at any timeframe.
Wave theory divides price action into five main phases. At the first phase, the trend is barely obvious as only a small number of traders are aware of its emerging potential. At phase two, there is a small correction, but it never brings prices below the inception point of the trend. Phase three is the strongest and most powerful, and also drives a large number of bystanders into the price action. Phase four is the ensuing corrective phase, and phase five is the final, bubbling phase of the trend where everyone is bullish and massive amounts of capital enter the market. Phase five is followed by a collapse which ends the trend.
Deciding where each of these phases begins or ends is mostly a matter of intuition. As such, there are no generally accepted methods, and each trader will sooner or later improvise his own techniques for determining the time frame of a trend. This is not necessarily a problem, since the best way of coping with the resultant failures and losses is choosing a strategy that will accommodate your risk tolerance and mental resilience in trading. Since each person is different, interpretation of Wave Theory also varies from person to person.
Conclusion
Advantages
The main advantage of the Elliott Wave Theory lies in the organization and compactness that it grants to the chaotic and price action. By reorganizing the market patterns into an easily understood hierarchy, the Wave Theory allows greater precision in trade decisions, increasing the trader's confidence, and widens his horizon by stretching the field beyond the randomness of short-term market events. All these make it possible to formulate more sophisticated and advanced strategies in trading while still keeping the necessities and implications of the immediate market action in mind.
Disadvantages
The weakness of the Elliott Wave Theory is its arbitrariness. It is rare to have two analysts examine the same chart part pattern and reach the same conclusions or draw the same wave patterns as a result. Indeed, it is almost possible to imagine a complex price pattern on which a large number of analysts will reach consensus.
The main reason of this problem is the intuitive, fluid formulation of the theory itself. By attempting to place market dynamics into the strict formalism of a deterministic theory, the analyst deprives himself of the benefit of the insight that prices will and often do move for reasons which do not in any way accept explanation by referencing the past. In other words, it is possible that the market will create recurring patterns that appear to be cyclical without any simplistic underlying causality based on patterns and visual analysis. And when the wave theorists try to disregard this fact and confine the price into an arbitrary structure devised on very strict rules, the outcome is a rainbow pattern of scenarios that have little relationship to actual market dynamics, or the realized future market trends.
In summary, we can say that the Wave Theory is useful as a tool for organizing one's opinion about the markets, but it has very little predictive power in the storm of real market action. One could certainly use the theory to generate entry/exit points for trades, but success is only possible if the notion of precision is discarded, and the data is evaluated with strategies suitable to a chance game.
for more info www.arrowforexsignal.com
Parabolic SAR Indicator
Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse) is an indicator developed by J. Willes Wilder to discover and exploit profitable trends in all kinds of markets. It is a popular tool among technical traders, and a straightforward and as a simple mechanism for analyzing the markets, it offers some unique advantages over other tools.
Below we have a chart of the EURUSD pair depicting the Parabolic SAR in action. We observe that the indicator was able to capture many small reversals with remarkable accuracy. And in those cases where it failed, we see that the thrust of the market action was strong enough to place it into a correct configuration, thereby minimizing the potential losses of a faulty trade.
Calculation of the Parabolic SAR
Parabolic SAR is calculated by a recursive formula which ties the prices of one period to another through simple arithmetics.
SAR of Today = SAR of Yesterday + a (EP- SAR of Yesterday)
Or
SAR of Tomorrow = SAR of Today + a(EP-SAR of Today)
EP is the maximum recorded during the time period in consideration. If during each period of analysis a new record is broken, the EP will be updated accordingly, and the SAR value will change.
"a" represents the acceleration factor. It is set at 0.02 in the beginning, and reset each time a new EP is achieved. This is to ensure that the indicator's value will come closer to the EP value every time a new record is broken, but the maximum value for the EP is usually set at 0.2 in order to prevent it from becoming too large and distorting the analytical picture. Due to the higher volatility of the forex market, traders prefer to give an initial value of 0.01 to the acceleration factor on the basis that frequent fluctuations, leaps and bounces in the price action do not justify attaching a lot of significance to arbitrary price highs.
Once the SAR value is calculated one of two courses will be taken in order to derive the signal from the indicator. If tomorrow's SAR remains within today's or yesterday's price range, the indicator is set at the lowest price during that time period. For example, if the SAR is slightly above yesterday's opening lowest price, or close to, but below, yesterday's high, the indicator will be set at today's lowest price.
If on the other hand, tomorrow's SAR value is within tomorrow's price range, the indicator will switch sides. If it is below the price action, it will move to the upside, and if it was on the upside it will come below, signifying a trend switch.
Trading with Parabolic SAR
Parabolic SAR is generally regarded as a trend indicator, since other types of markets tend to generate false signals leading to whipsaws and fake breakouts. The best way of trading the Parabolic SAR is to first gauge the direction of the market by using simple tools like trend lines, moving averages, or tools like the average true range, before using Parabolic SAR to trade the shorter-term fluctuations that can be exploited within a longer term framework.
When it is drawn on a chart, the Parabolic SAR will indicate a bullish market if it remains below the price, or supports it, and when it is above the same it is regarded to be suppressing the prices, indicating bearish conditions. Not only is it possible to regard this phenomenon as a signal for the opening of a position, but it also makes sense to use the Parabolic SAR as a stop or take profit level in each trade. For instance, when the price action is bearish, and we have a sell order, one can choose to exit the position when the price action approaches the SAR level by a predetermined number of pips. When the market action is bullish on the other hand, we can use the Parabolic SAR as a support level, and when the price gets too close to it, we can liquidate the trade. It is also possible to use a time-stop while trading with this indicator. In this case, there is no necessity of a market reversal. Instead we determine a timeframe during which the trade will be kept active, but when that period is out, we'll liquidate it even if the Parabolic SAR indicator is indicating positive conditions. This course of action is justified on the basis that in a strongly trending market where this indicator is most useful, lack of progress can be a sign of approaching reversal.
Conclusion
This indicator is most useful in a trending market. It is best to use it in combination with other indicators that establish the general direction of the trend at a higher level, while trading short-term volatility with the SAR. The advantages of this technical tool are its simplicity, clarity of signals, ease of interpretation, and tendency to generate concrete points of action during a trending market. These same strengths are also the weaknesses of the indicator. It is sometimes the case that the solid signals of the SAR indicator lack any practical basis. To avoid such conditions, we suggest that you use the SAR indicator with oscillators that signal emerging divergence/convergence scenarios, so that the common problem of whipsaws are reduced in frequency. Ultimately, of course, our best guide should always be money management and prudence in trading, beyond any single technical indicator
Elliott Wave Theory
Elliott Wave Theory is a popular method of analysis that applies a technical approach with a fundamental analysis interpretation. Elliott Wave Theorists also concentrate on the price action strictly, and agree to the notion that the price is the beginning and end of all analysis, but they recognize that there exists an important relationship between liquidity, credit, and economic robustness which underlies the existing price patterns in the market.
The Wave Theory was first proposed by Ralph Nelson Elliott, an accountant, in the 1930s. Elliott's approach was condensed into its definitive form in his 1938 book "Nature's Laws - The Secret of the Universe" in 1946. Since then, the theory has been regarded both as pseudo-science, and as an effective method for dealing with the uncertainties of the market. Academics tend to disregard it in general, while some famous trading personalities, such as Robert Prechter, and Paul Tudor Jones claim to have attained success by using it.
Calculation
The Elliott Wave Theory is based on the cyclical nature of market events. Most traders are familiar with the fact that market events, and economical conditions tend to recur in time with a varying frequency. A growth phase may be exceptionally long, or a recession (and a bear market may surprised to be exceptionally harsh and deep, but the nature of trading and economic activity ensures that sooner or later the existing conditions will revert to the opposite, and the market
Trading with the Elliott Wave
A wave theorist will divide the price pattern into several sub-patterns and consider trade opportunities on the basis of trends that exist at lower levels. Although Elliott Wave Theory is often discussed in the context of decades or years, the fractal nature of the price action enables the application of the theory at any timeframe.
Wave theory divides price action into five main phases. At the first phase, the trend is barely obvious as only a small number of traders are aware of its emerging potential. At phase two, there is a small correction, but it never brings prices below the inception point of the trend. Phase three is the strongest and most powerful, and also drives a large number of bystanders into the price action. Phase four is the ensuing corrective phase, and phase five is the final, bubbling phase of the trend where everyone is bullish and massive amounts of capital enter the market. Phase five is followed by a collapse which ends the trend.
Deciding where each of these phases begins or ends is mostly a matter of intuition. As such, there are no generally accepted methods, and each trader will sooner or later improvise his own techniques for determining the time frame of a trend. This is not necessarily a problem, since the best way of coping with the resultant failures and losses is choosing a strategy that will accommodate your risk tolerance and mental resilience in trading. Since each person is different, interpretation of Wave Theory also varies from person to person.
Conclusion
Advantages
The main advantage of the Elliott Wave Theory lies in the organization and compactness that it grants to the chaotic and price action. By reorganizing the market patterns into an easily understood hierarchy, the Wave Theory allows greater precision in trade decisions, increasing the trader's confidence, and widens his horizon by stretching the field beyond the randomness of short-term market events. All these make it possible to formulate more sophisticated and advanced strategies in trading while still keeping the necessities and implications of the immediate market action in mind.
Disadvantages
The weakness of the Elliott Wave Theory is its arbitrariness. It is rare to have two analysts examine the same chart part pattern and reach the same conclusions or draw the same wave patterns as a result. Indeed, it is almost possible to imagine a complex price pattern on which a large number of analysts will reach consensus.
The main reason of this problem is the intuitive, fluid formulation of the theory itself. By attempting to place market dynamics into the strict formalism of a deterministic theory, the analyst deprives himself of the benefit of the insight that prices will and often do move for reasons which do not in any way accept explanation by referencing the past. In other words, it is possible that the market will create recurring patterns that appear to be cyclical without any simplistic underlying causality based on patterns and visual analysis. And when the wave theorists try to disregard this fact and confine the price into an arbitrary structure devised on very strict rules, the outcome is a rainbow pattern of scenarios that have little relationship to actual market dynamics, or the realized future market trends.
In summary, we can say that the Wave Theory is useful as a tool for organizing one's opinion about the markets, but it has very little predictive power in the storm of real market action. One could certainly use the theory to generate entry/exit points for trades, but success is only possible if the notion of precision is discarded, and the data is evaluated with strategies suitable to a chance game.
for more info www.arrowforexsignal.com
Evening Forecast for 23/10/2013
Evening Forecast for 23/10/2013
GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.6175 - 1.6095
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 1.6163 SL 1.6195 TP 1.6108
EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3775 - 1.3705
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 1.3765 SL 1.3797 TP 1.3715
USD/CHF
Trading range: 0.8935 - 0.9005
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 0.8945 SL 0.8913 TP 0.8995
USD/JPY
Trading range: 97.45 - 96.80
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 97.34 SL 97.66 TP 96.89
For more info Click Here
GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.6175 - 1.6095
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 1.6163 SL 1.6195 TP 1.6108
EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3775 - 1.3705
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 1.3765 SL 1.3797 TP 1.3715
USD/CHF
Trading range: 0.8935 - 0.9005
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 0.8945 SL 0.8913 TP 0.8995
USD/JPY
Trading range: 97.45 - 96.80
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 97.34 SL 97.66 TP 96.89
For more info Click Here
Tuesday, October 22, 2013
Evening Forecast 22/10/2013
Evening Forecast 22/10/2013
EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3690 - 1.3590
Trend: Downward
Sell at 1.3679 SL 1.3711 TP 1.3602
USD/JPY
Trading range: 98.20 - 99.20
Trend: Upward
Buy at 98.34 SL 98.02 TP 99.06
GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.6145 - 1.6030
Trend: Downward
Sell at 1.6132 SL 1.6164 TP 1.6044
USD/CHF
Trading range: 0.9015 - 0.9125
Trend: Upward
Buy at 0.9028 SL 0.8996 TP 0.9112
For more info Click Here
EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3690 - 1.3590
Trend: Downward
Sell at 1.3679 SL 1.3711 TP 1.3602
USD/JPY
Trading range: 98.20 - 99.20
Trend: Upward
Buy at 98.34 SL 98.02 TP 99.06
GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.6145 - 1.6030
Trend: Downward
Sell at 1.6132 SL 1.6164 TP 1.6044
USD/CHF
Trading range: 0.9015 - 0.9125
Trend: Upward
Buy at 0.9028 SL 0.8996 TP 0.9112
For more info Click Here
Morning Forecast of 22/10/2013
Daily Forecast
EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3695 - 1.3590Trend: Downward
Sell at 1.3681 SL 1.3713 TP 1.3604
USD/JPY
Trading range: 98.10 - 99.10
Trend: Upward
Buy at 98.24 SL 97.92 TP 98.96
GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.6145 - 1.6035
Trend: Downward
Sell at 1.6134 SL 1.6166 TP 1.6046
USD/CHF
Trading range: 0.9010 - 0.9120
Trend: Upward
Buy at 0.9024 SL 0.8992 TP 0.9108
Fore more info Click Here
Monday, October 21, 2013
Evening Forecast For 21/10/2013
Evening Forecast for 21/10/2013
EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3695 - 1.3625
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 1.3685 SL 1.3717 TP 1.3635
USD/JPY
Trading range: 97.90 - 98.60
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 98.04 SL 97.72 TP 98.49
GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.6190 - 1.6110
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 1.6178 SL 1.6210 TP 1.6123
USD/CHF
Trading range: 0.9015 - 0.9090
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 0.9028 SL 0.8996 TP 0.9078
For more info Click Here
EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3695 - 1.3625
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 1.3685 SL 1.3717 TP 1.3635
USD/JPY
Trading range: 97.90 - 98.60
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 98.04 SL 97.72 TP 98.49
GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.6190 - 1.6110
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 1.6178 SL 1.6210 TP 1.6123
USD/CHF
Trading range: 0.9015 - 0.9090
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 0.9028 SL 0.8996 TP 0.9078
For more info Click Here
Saturday, October 12, 2013
Useful Forex Indicators
As the name suggests, Larry Williams
indicators are a group of technical tools developed and published by the renowned
commodity and stock trader Larry Williams in a series of books and articles
since the 80s. In this article we'll present a brief overview of the most
popular ones among the tools developed by him. The indicators themselves will
be examined in their own articles at this website.
Born in 1942 in Montana, Larry Williams
is one of the most famous traders of our time. His greatest claim to fame
arises out of his success in the World Cup Championship of Futures Trading in
1987. During this contest, Larry Williams was able to turn $10000 to $1,1
million in about twelve months using techniques that he had developed earlier
in his carrier. Since then, he has been the author of articles and books about
trading, providing the public with interesting insight to his trading skills,
and sharing the technical basis of his success with other traders. In 1997, his
daughter Michelle Williams also gained the first place in the same competition.
Larry Williams created a large number
of indicators the rationale behind which is explained in his various books and
articles. With his celebrity status in the trading community, it was not long
before brokers incorporated his ideas into their own software and trading
packages, and today the Williams Percent Range indicator, for example, is a
part of the standard technical charting toolbox of just about any broker.
Similar to the Stochastics indicator,
Williams Percent Range Indicator is one of the most popular tools created by
the famous trader. It is basically a volatile oscillator the signals of which
are acted upon only if they last for a considerable period of time. Unlike the
RSI, for example, one doesn't buy or sell at overbought/oversold levels, but
awaits the consolidation of the price in these regions before any conclusion is
reached.
The Williams Oscillator is widely
available as part of most forex charting packages.
Larry Williams has developed many ways
of measuring the accumulation/distribution phenomenon in the markets in light
of volatility, open interest, volume, and many other factors. These indicators
are not as common as the percent range indicator, but they are popular and
highly regarded by traders.
Williams Ultimate Oscillator
The Ultimate oscillator was created for
the purpose of reducing the effect of short-term large movements on the signals
generated. The indicator measures accumulation/distribution in the market,
instead of focusing on the price directly, and can also be configured to
fluctuate in accordance with three different time cycles corresponding to 7,
14, and 28-period measurements.
The indicator is used on the basis of
divergence/convergences, and a signal is confirmed with a trend break,
which is a gap in the price indicating that the momentum of the price
action has changed decisively. Positions are opened on the basis of highs or
lows registered on the oscillator.
This is not so much as an indicator as
it is a concept introduced by Larry Williams in one of his books. Used with
simple bar charts, or in more complicated configurations, the Greatest Swing
Value concept is used by swing and range traders for establishing trade
patterns.
Blast Off Indicator
This indicator is not very common,
since it is a proprietary tool, but Larry Williams will not hesitate to talk
about it during his appearances in meetings or seminaries with other traders.
Conclusion
Needless to say, Williams indicators
are very popular in the trading community. The trading record of the creator of
these tools is enough in itself, for many people, to justify their use.
Nonetheless, anyone who regards these tools as charmed items that will protect
their users from error is likely to be disappointed in short order. As with any
indicator, using the Williams indicators requires, above all, a reasonable
degree of skepticism about their effectiveness. No indicator will eliminate the
necessity of a diligent and focused approach to risk management. These tools
are no exception.
In this group, the most popular ones
are the Williams Percent Range indicator and the Ultimate Oscillator. Although
we're going to examine both of them in greater detail in a separate article, we
may note here that as trend indicators that are volatile themselves, and
will generate good results only if the signals emitted by them are used with
great conservatism. In other words, pick the most convincing, and long-lasting
signals, as you'll have plenty of them to act upon in any case. It is possible
to do very well with these great indicators when one treats risk sensibly and
does not get carried away by his successes, or allow his failures to chop off a
large chunk of his account by trading too much.
Moving Averages are technical tools
designed to measure the momentum and direction of a trend. The idea behind
their creation is simple. Price action is thought to fluctuate around the
average value over a period of time, and we can expect to be able to the
represent the market's momentum by calculating if the current prices are above
or below the market's average value. But since the total length of the time
period that must be included in the calculation of the average is too large
(are we going to begin in 1980, or the year 2000 while computing our time
series?), we pick the period arbitrarily, and update the average as time
progresses.
Moving averages are some of the most
useful and effective gauges of market action in a trending market. Crossovers,
divergences, as well as trends of the moving average itself can be used to
analyze and crystallize the signals that can be distilled from the market
action, which can then be used to help us make future decisions about our
trades.
Types of Moving Averages
There are a large number of moving
averages available for traders. Some of them are:
Simple Moving Average
The simple moving average is the most
basic of these tools. It simply sums up the cloaisng prices over a specified
time, and divides them by the duration of the period, reaching at the value of
the indicator. No weighting is used, and no smoothing factor is applied.
Exponential Moving Average
The exponential moving average is one of
a number of different moving average types that gives greater value to the most
recent prices. As its name implies, the weighting is done exponentially. In
other words, as we move to the left on the chart (towards past values), the
weighting that they receive in the computation of the MA decreases rapidly
(faster than it would be in a linear progression), and the most recent prices
are far more significant, as a result, in determining the value of the
indicator.
Smoothed Moving Averaged
The smoothed moving average is similar
to EMA, except that it takes all available data into account. The earliest
price values are never discarded, but receive a lower weighting, and possess a
smaller role in determining the value of the indicator. As its name hints, the smoothed
moving average is mostly used to smoothen the price action, removing short-term
volatility, allowing us a better understanding of the long term momentum of the
market.
Linear Regressed Moving Average
This moving average is similar to the
MA, except that the weighting factors are linear, not exponential. For example,
the price of the earliest period (n) is multiplied with 1, the following, more
recent period (n-1) is multiplied by a factor of, 2, and the next one is
multiplied by 3, and so on, until we reach the present timeframe. In this
context, the most recent prices receive greater emphasis, and the latest
fluctuations, rises or falls are depicted with greater clarity, aiding trade
decisions.
Using the Moving Averages
Although there are almost countless
improvised, and professionally created strategies based on moving averages,
there are three typical methods that lie at the basis of most of the strategies
and methods.
Crossovers
Crossovers arise when the price rises
or falls below the moving average, signaling the end or the beginning of a new
trend. Crossovers are some of the most common occurrences in technical trading,
and as such, do not grant us a great deal of predictive power in the evaluation
of the market action. They are used best in combination with other tools and
techniques when we seek to evaluate the price action with greater confidence.
Moving Average Trends
Apart from trends in the price action
itself, the moving average can also have its own trend at times. It is possible
to take advantage of these trends for determining entry/exit points. Although
not as reliable as the price trend itself when used alone, it can be an
efficient way to confirm the price action when used in combination with it.
Divergence/Convergence
A divergence occurs when the trend is
in ascendance, but the moving average is descending. A convergence happens when
the market trend is bearish, but the moving average contradicts it by
registering higher highs. These events are thought to signal a future reversal.
When the price action is contradicted by the indicator values, the expectation
is that the market is about to run out of energy, and it may be a good time to
open a counter-trend position. It is important to remember that timing is very
uncertain in all these formations, and that the anticipated reversal may never
occur. Especially in strong trends, it is common to observe
divergence/convergence phenomenon arise regularly without leading to any
significant reversal. Still, it is the rarest, and most popular technical
configuration preferred in the interpretation of a moving average.
MA Hopping
We use this term to define a method of
trading in which MAs of different periods are used as successive resistance
levels for the price action to breach. For example, we expect an ongoing trend
to first breach the 1-hour, then the 3-hour, then the 10, and 40-hour moving
averages in succession, and may choose to open a position at each of these
successive indicators. Since we anticipate continuity between levels indicated
by these MAs, we will maintain our positions as the price hops, so to speak,
between them.
We'll examine each of these methods as
we discuss each moving average type in its own article. To learn more about how
these calculations are performed you are invited to visit the relevant page.
Conclusions
The main weakness of the moving average
is its lagged nature. In many cases, and especially for short term
fluctuations, by the time a moving average captures a market event, it may have
already ended. The moving average will only note a developing market pattern
after it has been set up convincingly, and if the pattern is short-lived, it
will not be possible to trade it, and we may suffer from whipsaws as well.
The strength of this indicator type is
its ease-of-use, clarity, and simplicity. They can be easily incorporated into
any overall strategy, and it is also possible to devise methods exclusively
through the usage of the moving average as well. The great versatility of this
indicator type makes it a valuable addition to any trader's arsenal of
technical tools, regardless of trading style, or the preferred market type.
Friday, October 11, 2013
Daily Forecast
Arrowforex Evening Forecast 11 October 2013
EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3550 - 1.3625
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 1.3564 SL 1.3532 TP 1.3614
USD/JPY
Trading range: 98.55 - 97.90
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 98.41 SL 98.73 TP 97.96
GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.5960 - 1.6040
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 1.5971 SL 1.5939 TP 1.6026
USD/CHF
Trading range: 0.9100 - 0.9030
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 0.9087 SL 0.9119 TP 0.9037
For more info Click Here
EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3550 - 1.3625
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 1.3564 SL 1.3532 TP 1.3614
USD/JPY
Trading range: 98.55 - 97.90
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 98.41 SL 98.73 TP 97.96
GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.5960 - 1.6040
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 1.5971 SL 1.5939 TP 1.6026
USD/CHF
Trading range: 0.9100 - 0.9030
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 0.9087 SL 0.9119 TP 0.9037
For more info Click Here
Thursday, October 10, 2013
Arrowforex Evening Forecast
Arrow Forex Evening Forecast on 10-10-13
Evening Forecast of 10 October 2013
EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3545 - 1.3470
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 1.3533 SL 1.3565 TP 1.3483
USD/JPY
Trading range: 97.65 - 98.35
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 97.78 SL 97.46 TP 98.23
GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.5955 - 1.5875
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 1.5944 SL 1.5976 TP 1.5889
USD/CHF
Trading range: 0.9090 - 0.9160
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 0.9100 SL 0.9068 TP 0.9150
For more info Click Here
Evening Forecast of 10 October 2013
EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3545 - 1.3470
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 1.3533 SL 1.3565 TP 1.3483
USD/JPY
Trading range: 97.65 - 98.35
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 97.78 SL 97.46 TP 98.23
GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.5955 - 1.5875
Trend: Neutral
Sell at 1.5944 SL 1.5976 TP 1.5889
USD/CHF
Trading range: 0.9090 - 0.9160
Trend: Neutral
Buy at 0.9100 SL 0.9068 TP 0.9150
For more info Click Here
Tuesday, October 8, 2013
Forex Indicators
Oscillators are a group of indicators
that confine the theoretically infinite range of the price action into more
practical limits. They were developed due to the difficulty of identifying a
high or low value in the course of trading. Although we may have mental
concepts of what is high or low in a typical day's price action, the volatile
and chaotic nature of trading means that any high can easily be superseded by
another one that sometimes follows on the heels of a previous record, and
negates it swiftly. In short, practice and experience tell us that prices in
themselves are very poor guides on what constitutes an extreme value in the
market, and. oscillators aim to solve this problem by identifying indicator
levels that hint at tops or bottoms, and helping us in the decision process.
There are two ways of using an
oscillator. One is to determine turning points, tops and bottoms, and this
style is usually useful while trading ranges only. Oscillators are also used
trending markets, but in this case our only purpose is joining the trend. Highs
or lows, tops or bottoms are used for entering a trade in the direction of the
main trend.
There are many kinds of oscillators
available for the trader's choice, and although they have different names and
purposes in accordance with the creators' vision, there are a small number of
distinctions that determine which group an oscillator falls into, and where or
how it can be used, as a result.
It is possible to group oscillators
first on the basis of their price sensitivity. Some, like the Williams
Oscillator, are very sensitive to the price action. They reflect market
movements accurately, but under the default configuration do not refine movements
into simpler, clearer signals for the use of the trader. Oscillators like the
RSI are less volatile, and are more precise in their signals, but also less
sensitive to the price action, which means that two different movements of
different volatility and violence may still be registered in the same range by
the RSI, while the Williams Oscillator analyzes it more accurately to reflect
its violent nature. Some oscillators provide limit values to determine various
oversold/overbought levels, while others create their signals through the
divergence/convergence phenomenon alone. In general, oscillators that provide
oversold/overbought levels are useful in range patterns, others are mostly used
in trend analysis.
Let's take a look at a few examples to
have an idea of the different types oscillators used by traders.
1.
MACD:: The MACD is one of the most commonplace indicators.
It is a trend indicator, and it is useless in ranging markets. MACD has no
upper or lower limits, but does have a centerline and some traders use
crossovers to generate trade signals.
2.
RSI: RSI is another commonplace and relatively aged
indicator used by range traders. It is almost useless in trending markets.
3.
Williams Oscillator: An excellent tool for analyzing
trending markets, especially those highly volatile, the Williams Oscillator
requires some commitment and patience to get used to, but it is popular, partly
due to its association with the trading legend Larry Williams.
4.
Commodity Channel Index: The CCI is particularly useful for
the analysis of commodities and currencies that move in cycles. It is not as
popular as the others mentioned above, but it has been around for some time,
and has stood to test of time.
The indicators are examined in greater
detail in their own article.
Using the Oscillators
Each oscillator has its own how-to of
trading the markets. Some provide the aforementioned overbought/oversold levels
for trade decisions, others are used by traders through various technical
phenomena to generate the desired signals. But it is generally agreed that the
best way of using this indicator type is the divergence/convergence method.
Although this method is also prone to emitting false signals at times, it does
not occur as frequently as the other technical events such as crossovers or the
breach of overbought/oversold levels, and is therefore preferred over other
styles of analysis.
Conclusions
Oscillators can be used in ranging and
trending markets, and since, depending on the timeframe, even a range pattern
can be broken down to smaller trends, it can also be possible to use trend
oscillators in range trading as well. Creativity and experience are the main
requirements for the successful use of these versatile technical tools. If you
seek to use them in your own trading, it is a good idea to do a lot of
backtesting, and demo trading just to get used to the parameters, and to gain
an idea of what works and what does not. In time, your own trading style will
develop which will determine the indicator types that you enjoy most and find
most versatile and useful for you. You can begin by studying the various
articles on oscillators at this website.
..............................................................To be continued
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